Differentiation Reveals Resilience: A Comprehensive Analysis of Aluminum Processing Industry's National Day Holiday Production and Stockpiling in 2025 [SMM Analysis]

September 30, 2025:

The overlapping Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2025 created an 8-day long holiday. An SMM survey of sample enterprises across the entire industry chain of the aluminum processing sector revealed a coexistence of overall production resilience and distinct characteristics of divergence among different segments. The survey covered a total of 87 downstream aluminum processing enterprises, involving a total annual capacity exceeding 13.226 million mt. Data shows that the average holiday duration for the same sample enterprises compared to last year increased by 0.2 days to 1.8 days YoY. Leading enterprises maintained continuous production leveraging their order advantages, while some small and medium-sized enterprises adjusted their holiday arrangements due to demand and cost pressures, presenting a supply-side pattern characterized by "core stability with localized adjustments."

Holiday and Production Arrangements Diverge Significantly Across Segments

Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil: Prominent Production Continuity, Holiday Disruption Minimized

Domestic aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil enterprises averaged 0.7 days off, basically flat compared to last year, making it one of the most stable segments in terms of holiday production. The core driver stems from stable orders on hand for most enterprises during the September-October peak season, leading to tight production schedules. According to industry operational practices, leading enterprises have established mature holiday production guarantee systems, with preparatory work such as raw material stockpiling completed before the holiday. Combined with years of operational experience without holiday-related shutdowns, production continuity is fully ensured. Only a small number of small and medium-sized enterprises, limited by their order scale, implemented short holidays of 2-3 days, having a negligible impact on the overall industry supply.

Aluminum Wire and Cable: Top-Tier Enterprises Maintain Production While Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Struggle with Costs

Aluminum wire and cable enterprises averaged 0.7 days off for the holiday, an increase of 0.7 days YoY, reflecting a trend of "stable production among top-tier enterprises and temporary shutdowns among small and medium-sized ones." Domestic top-tier enterprises are currently in their delivery cycles, with most producing and delivering according to schedule. However, losses resulting from fluctuating raw material prices have led to a decline in production enthusiasm compared to the same period last year. Affected by high in-factory inventory, a small number of enterprises opted for 3–5 days off. Regarding raw material stockpiling, enterprises generally focused on just-in-time procurement, with subdued stockpiling sentiment. During the holiday, the supply side was able to ensure normal shipments to meet production demands.

Aluminum Extrusion: Construction Sector Under Pressure, Industrial Sector Shows Resilience

Aluminum extrusion enterprises averaged 2.8 days off, an increase of 0.5 days YoY, making it the sector with the longest holiday duration. The industry as a whole was dragged down by fluctuating aluminum prices and weak downstream demand, with the operating rate of sampled enterprises declining slightly by 3.3 percentage points YoY. Some individual companies extended their holidays this year. By sector, construction aluminum extrusion enterprises, affected by the sluggish real estate market, generally took 4-7 days off; industrial aluminum extrusion orders were relatively better, with holiday periods shorter at around 3 days, and some enterprises in east China and south China even maintained normal production. Raw material procurement continued to be primarily driven by rigid demand, making it difficult to witness the heated scenario of concentrated stockpiling.

Secondary Aluminum Alloy: Stockpiling Constrained, Production Arrangements Flexibly Adjusted

Secondary aluminum alloy enterprises averaged 0.7 days off for the holiday, a decrease of 0.2 days YoY, demonstrating high flexibility in production arrangements. Specifically, enterprises providing direct aluminum liquid supply continued normal production modes or adopted measures such as rotating breaks and moderately reducing production loads; some enterprises planned approximately 3-day holidays, with extensions or reductions of 1 to 3 days compared to last year; a few enterprises had yet to finalize specific holiday plans, pending clarification based on downstream customer demand and order situations. Prior to the holiday, secondary aluminum plants actively stockpiled, but constrained by persistently tight aluminum scrap supply and high prices, overall stockpiling capacity was limited, resulting in minimal actual replenishment of raw materials. Although pre-holiday procurement demand drove a slight recovery in market transactions, overall downstream stockpiling sentiment remained subdued, restricting transaction volume.

Aluminum Die-Casting: Holiday Extension Hinders Stockpiling

Aluminum die-casting enterprises averaged 3.7 days off, an increase of 0.6 days YoY, ranking highest among all sectors. The extended holiday was mainly due to the dual holiday factor and weaker-than-expected downstream orders, with most companies extending holidays by 1–2 days compared to last year. On the stockpiling side, most enterprises only maintained minimal reserves, while a small number abandoned stockpiling due to delayed procurement and unexpectedly sharp price increases, reflecting the industry's sensitivity to cost fluctuations.

Aluminum Wheel Hubs: Export Boost Bolsters Confidence, Leading Enterprises Maintain Stable Production

Aluminum wheel hub enterprises averaged 2 days off for the holiday, a reduction of 0.5 days year-on-year, highlighting production resilience. Against the backdrop of the September-October peak season, most companies maintained steady orders on hand. Coupled with the absence of large-scale high-temperature-induced production restrictions during the year, production schedules remained tight. Overseas demand served as the core support, with China's aluminum alloy wheel hub exports reaching 97,900 mt in August, hitting a three-year high for a single month and significantly boosting corporate confidence. Leveraging mature holiday operation systems and sufficient stockpiling, leading enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday; only a small number of companies took 3-8 days off, with the duration shrinking compared to the previous year.

Core Industry Characteristics and Post-Holiday Market Outlook

From an overall perspective, the aluminum processing industry exhibited three key characteristics during the 2025 National Day holiday: first, the divergence between leading enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises intensified, with top-tier enterprises maintaining continuous production due to order advantages and operational capabilities, while small and medium-sized enterprises adjusted holiday schedules under cost and demand pressures; second, the demand structure had a significant impact, with export-dependent sectors (such as aluminum wheel hubs) and industrial demand-supported sectors (such as industrial extrusions) demonstrating more stable production, while construction-related segments faced noticeable pressure; third, stockpiling behavior became more cautious, with most sectors, except for leading enterprises, primarily engaging in just-in-time procurement, reflecting a wait-and-see sentiment toward future prices and demand.

Looking ahead to the post-holiday market, SMM believes that three key changes require close attention: first, the strength of the September-October peak season, particularly whether demand in the construction sector can be released after the holiday, will directly impact the pace of production resumption in segments such as aluminum extrusions; second, the transmission of aluminum price trends to the production side, as the stability of raw material prices will influence the willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to resume operations; third, the sustainability of overseas demand, as the continued high growth in export data for products like aluminum alloy wheel hubs is crucial for industry confidence. Overall, while short-term supply stability is supported by leading enterprises, substantial improvement on the demand side remains the core factor for sustaining the recovery trend.